Acknowledgments ix
Introduction 1
TO 1200: BEGINNINGS
1. The Winds of the Greeks and the Role
of the Dice 11
2. As Easy as I, II, III 23
1200–1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS
3. The Renaissance Gambler 39
4. The French Connection 57
5. The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man 73
1700–1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED
6. Considering the Nature of Man 99
7. The Search for Moral Certainty 116
8. The Supreme Law of Unreason 135
9. The Man with the Sprained Brain 152
10. Peapods and Perils 172
11. The Fabric of Felicity 187
1900–1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION
12. The Measure of Our Ignorance 197
13. The Radically Distinct Notion 215
14. The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories 231
15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker 247
DEGREES OF BELIEF:EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY
16. The Failure of Invariance 269
17. The Theory Police 284
18. The Fantastic System of Side Bets 304
19. Awaiting the Wildness 329
Notes 339
Bibliography 353
Name Index 365
Subject Index 369
PETER L. BERNSTEIN is President of Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., economic consultants to institutional investors. Mr. Bernstein is the author of six books in economics and finance, including the bestselling Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street, as well as many articles in the professional and popular press. He is the Editor of The Portable MBA in Investment (Wiley) and was the Founding Editor of The Journal of Portfolio Management.
AGAINST THE GODS appeared in the "Washington Is Also Reading..." section of The Washington Post Book World. The book is described as, "A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory."-The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998
AGAINST THE GODS appeared in the "Washington Is Also Reading..." section of The Washington Post Book World. The book is described as, "A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory."-The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998
For several centuries, mathematics has been the language of the exact sciences. Only in the 20th century has mathematics become predominant in other fields, particularly economics and finance. In this book, Bernstein (Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street, LJ 12/91), head of an economic consulting firm, traces the development of probability theory from its beginnings in analyzing games of chance, through its application to statistical theory and insurance, up to its present use in developing investment strategies to control risk. He includes excellent sections on portfolio analysis and on investments in derivatives. Bernstein clearly describes the people, their work, and the events that have revolutionized the thinking on Wall Street. A worthwhile acquisition for business and math collections.‘Harold D. Shane, Baruch Coll., CUNY
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