This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how
expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be
assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how
expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be
assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
[An] excellent volume....No one...has systematically and
methodically addressed how subjective probabilities ought to be
used in estimating and evaluating societal risks. This is the
accomplishment of the Cooke volume."--Risk
"Displays the state of the art in the techniques of using expert
opinion for estimating contingencies that cannot be assessed
directly....To be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion
which is by no means ended."--New Scientist
"The strengths of the book are its comprehensive examination of the
contemporary practice and use of expert opinion, and its detailed
case studies as illustrations. Its style is clear and the
exposition of ideas well organized and thoroughly and intelligently
presented."--Choice
"The book is the first to provide an account of this novel field
and provides an admirable survey of many ideas emerging therein."
--Mathematical Reviews
"A very useful, readable survey of the economic, statistical,
psychological, and mathematical considerations that arise in using
expert opinion. It will be excellent background reading for my
students."--A. Paltiel, Harvard School of Public Health
[An] excellent volume....No one...has systematically and
methodically addressed how subjective probabilities ought to be
used in estimating and evaluating societal risks. This is the
accomplishment of the Cooke volume."--Risk
"Displays the state of the art in the techniques of using expert
opinion for estimating contingencies that cannot be assessed
directly....To be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion
which is by no means ended."--New Scientist
"The strengths of the book are its comprehensive examination of the
contemporary practice and use of expert opinion, and its detailed
case studies as illustrations. Its style is clear and the
exposition of ideas well organized and thoroughly and intelligently
presented."--Choice
"The book is the first to provide an account of this novel field
and provides an admirable survey of many ideas emerging therein."
--Mathematical Reviews
"A very useful, readable survey of the economic, statistical,
psychological, and mathematical considerations that arise in using
expert opinion. It will be excellent background reading for my
students."--A. Paltiel, Harvard School of Public Health
"[An] asset of the volume is its clarity of exposition and its
quantitative precision....Cooke's work displays an impressive
encyclopedic knowledge....His analysis displays his analytic skills
as well as his years of experience in applying his methods to the
solution of problems in scientific, technological, industrial, and
environmental risk assessment....The book is a "must read" for risk
assessors, decision theorists, policymakers, mathematicians,
and
environmentalists as well as social, political, and moral
philosophers."--Ethics
"It is, broadly speaking, about the speculations, guesses, and
estimates of people who are considered experts, in so far as they
serve as "cognitive input" in some decision process. . .The subject
matter therefore overlaps disciplines from philosophy through
policy analysis up to some rather technical mathematics."
--Quarterly of Applied Mathematics
|
Ask a Question About this Product More... |
|
