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This book addresses the role of statistics and probability in the evaluation of forensic evidence, including both theoretical issues and applications in legal contexts. It discusses what evidence is and how it can be quantified, how it should be understood, and how it is applied (and, sometimes, misapplied). After laying out their philosophical position, the authors begin with a detailed study of the likelihood ratio. Following this grounding, they discuss applications of the likelihood ratio to forensic questions, in the abstract and in concrete cases. The analysis of DNA evidence in particular is treated in great detail. Later chapters concern Bayesian networks, frequentist approaches to evidence, the use of belief functions, and the thorny subject of database searches and familial searching. Finally, the authors provide commentary on various recommendation reports for forensic science. Written to be accessible to a wide audience of applied mathematicians, forensic scientists, and scientifically-oriented legal scholars, this book is a must-read for all those interested in the mathematical and philosophical foundations of evidence and belief.
This book addresses the role of statistics and probability in the evaluation of forensic evidence, including both theoretical issues and applications in legal contexts. It discusses what evidence is and how it can be quantified, how it should be understood, and how it is applied (and, sometimes, misapplied). After laying out their philosophical position, the authors begin with a detailed study of the likelihood ratio. Following this grounding, they discuss applications of the likelihood ratio to forensic questions, in the abstract and in concrete cases. The analysis of DNA evidence in particular is treated in great detail. Later chapters concern Bayesian networks, frequentist approaches to evidence, the use of belief functions, and the thorny subject of database searches and familial searching. Finally, the authors provide commentary on various recommendation reports for forensic science. Written to be accessible to a wide audience of applied mathematicians, forensic scientists, and scientifically-oriented legal scholars, this book is a must-read for all those interested in the mathematical and philosophical foundations of evidence and belief.
1. Some Philosophy of Probability, Statistics, and Forensic Science; 2. Evidence and the Likelihood Ratio; 3. The Uncertainty of the Likelihood Ratio; 4. Forensic Identification; 5. The Bayesian Framework in Legal Cases; 6. Bayesian Networks; 7. DNA; 8. Statistical Modeling and DNA Mixture Evaluation; 9. p-Values of Likelihood Ratios; 10. From Evidence to Decision; 11. The Interpretation of DNA Database Matches; 12. Familial Searching; 13. Belief Functions and their Applications; 14. Recommendation Reports; References; Index.
A self-contained examination of all aspects of statistical evidence evaluation in forensic science, from theory to concrete applications.
Ronald Meester is Professor in probability theory at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. He is co-author of the books Continuum Percolation (1996), Random Networks for Communication (2008), and Wiskunde in je vingers (in Dutch, 2015) and has written around 120 research papers on topics including percolation theory, ergodic theory, philosophy of science, and forensic probability. Klaas Slooten works as Statistician at the Netherlands Forensic Institute and at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam where he is Professor by special appointment. He has published around 30 articles on forensic probability and statistics. He is interested in the mathematical, legal, and philosophical approaches to the evaluation of evidence.
'This is a foundational introduction to the statistical
interpretation of forensic evidence. It should be considered an
essential reference for anyone considering study or research in
this area. The language and exposition are crystal-clear and leave
no room for uncertainty of thinking.' James Curran, University of
Auckland
'A masterful and thought-provoking look at the statistical
underpinnings for the interpretation of forensic evidence. The
authors make a compelling case for the use of likelihood ratios and
debunk misinterpretations of these ratios. Their strong statements
across a range of current debates about DNA evidence in particular
are based on detailed mathematical derivations.' Bruce Weir,
University of Washington
'This book is accessible to anyone … It provides an example of
applied math being utilized in the real world while being mindful
of the gap that can occur between practice and theory. The diligent
reader will find much to learn and enjoy throughout.' Notices of
the American Mathematical Society
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